I'll try and keep this brief as my Films of 2012 ran a bit long, but here are my predictions for Sunday's upcoming 85th Academy Awards.
I've written which of the nominees I think will win, which I think should win and also what I feel should win regardless of whether they were nominated or not.
I've kept to the headline categories, skipping Best Foreign Langauge Film, Best Documentary Feature and Best Animated Feature Film this year, as I haven't seen enough of the nominated movies. However for the record I would say "Amour" and "Holy Motors" were the best foreign language films I saw last year, whilst "ParaNorman" was my favourite animated feature. I was terrible when it came to watching documentaries this year, but I hear it was scandalous that "The Impostor" was not nominated.
Anyway, here are my predictions...
Best Picture
Which Nominee Will Win: Argo
Which Nominee Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
What Should Have Won: The Master
I was astonished to find "The Master" was not even nominated. It's a remarkable picture unlike anything else you'd see last year, but I think it paid for it's ambiguity with the Academy. "Argo" was an enjoyable, well-crafted thriller, but in ten years time, we'll be talking about "The Master" and the incredibly well balanced "Zero Dark Thirty" instead.
Best Director
Which Nominee Will Win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Which Nominee Should Win: Ang Lee (The Life of Pi)
Who Should Have Won: Joss Whedon (The Avengers)
Paul Thomas Anderson would be a very worthy winner for "The Master", but I've gone for Joss Whedon. Perhaps a surprising choice (unless you've read my Film's of 2012 blog post) but the skill required to create a film of this magnitude is staggering. Whedon managed to bring great performances out of his large ensemble cast, while creating an exciting action film with brilliant technical effects. Any director who can bring together so many different aspects has to be a master of his craft. For a similar reason, I went with Ang Lee from the nominated list as he balances so many different elements within an adaptation of a difficult novel. Best Actor in a Leading Role
Which Nominee Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Who Should Have Won: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Daniel Day Lewis is utterly convincing as Lincoln, completely inhabiting the role as always, but Phoenix is the most magnetic screen presence of the year. His Freddie Quell is fascinating to watch and I couldn't imagine any other actor fulfilling this role in such a way.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Which Nominee Will Win: Emmanuele Riva (Amour)
Which Nominee Should Win:Emmanuele Riva (Amour)
Who Should Have Won: Emmanuele Riva (Amour)
Emmanuele Riva is brilliant in her role as a woman dealing with the effects of a debilitating stroke, so I can't imagine anyone else will win. My next choice would be Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty" as she so artfully creates a fully formed performance as Maya, despite the film offering very little back story to her character.
Best Actor In a Supporting Role
Which Nominee Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Which Nominee Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Who Should Have Won: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Much like Joaquin Phoenix, Seymour Hoffman dominates his role in "The Master" with aplomb. He manages to create a fragile but domineering character with charm and magnetism.
Which Nominee Will Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Which Nominee Should Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Who Should Have Won: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
I wrestled with this one a bit as Amy Adams is great in "The Master" and plays a more constant role throughout the film. However Hathaway's performance in "Les Misérables" is so emotive that after her (spoiler) early exit from the film, it loses it's way and lacks the emotional resonance that it found in her short appearance.
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